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When Vladimir Putin traveled to India four years ago, the international order was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the global health crisis, focused on discussions on economic and military ties between the two nations.

Not long after, the large-scale military offensive of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, greatly limiting his diplomatic travel.

Furthermore, that period came before a major change in US-India relations, marked by contentious rhetoric and the imposition of substantial trade tariffs.

"In this context, the importance of Putin's journey to engage with the Indian PM cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a defiance of outside coercion," experts emphasize.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The summit takes place at a crucial time. President Putin comes following dismissing latest diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, bolstered by claimed advances by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the primary importance of this engagement is its very occurrence," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It suggests a return to something resembling normal international relations."

For India, the risks are particularly elevated. The country navigates a difficult geopolitical climate, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an assertive China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when European ambassadors released a public commentary questioning Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a firm response from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond originates from the Soviet period and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a recent shift.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of cheap energy from Russia. However, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, accusations increased, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has reverted to its traditional posture of maintaining multiple options," explained a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's core motivation with Russia is its strategic location. "China continues to be the primary security challenge to India, and for decades, India has depended on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This concern has also accelerated India's drive to reduce its military imports, decreasing its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in recent years.

"Delhi will try to find a middle ground: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a sudden cutoff would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Increased economic cooperation is expected to be a major topic. President Putin has recently emphasized plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil imports is central. Although the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. Simultaneously, India has moved to boost imports of US energy.

A Russian official admitted "hurdles" in energy trade but insisted it would proceed without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" drops and that Russia possesses the "means" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned mainly through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader has access to both sides, the nation lacks the diplomatic clout to alter the course of the war," the analyst noted. "Beyond urging negotiations, its ability to effect change is limited."

Ultimately, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pure realpolitik," driven by national interest in a rapidly changing world.